Recently-released FBI crime data for 2023 shows a slight increase in total violent crime in Kentucky compared to 2022, but a closer look shows that while some crimes went up others went down. Looking at the trend over time, violent crime in Kentucky is still significantly down from the COVID peak in 2021 as well as from its historical trend in the state going back to the 1990s. Violent crime in Kentucky also remains much lower than in the nation as a whole. House Bill (HB) 5 in the 2024 legislative session was predicated on a crime wave that still does not show up in the data.
Total violent crime in Kentucky increased slightly from 2022 but went down significantly for homicide and rape
Total violent crime in Kentucky increased 2% between 2022 and 2023.1 However, looking at each of the four types of violent offenses broken out in the data, there is an increase in only one of the categories:2
- Homicides declined by 16.2%.
- Rapes declined by 9.7%.
- Robberies remained relatively unchanged (0.1% increase).
- Aggravated assault went up 7.2%.
Violent crime in Kentucky is still way down compared to recent and historical trends, and much lower than the U.S. as a whole
In 2021, there was a COVID-related bump in violent crime in Kentucky and nationally. But as illustrated in the graph below, the state’s violent crime rate dropped significantly in 2022 and is 16.6% lower in 2023 than it was in 2021.
Violent crime is also down from its historical trend in Kentucky going back to the 1990s, with a 2023 rate that is 58.1% below what it was at its high in 1992. In addition, Kentucky’s violent crime rate in 2023 is 40.1% lower than the U.S. as a whole.
HB 5 is a mistake, and no further legislation should be passed in 2025 based on claims of a crime wave
At the same time the new crime data indicates some areas for concern in Kentucky, it does not support the recent claims that Kentucky is experiencing a significant surge of violent crimes. Such false narratives about a crime have been used to justify harmful, regressive criminal legal system policies such as HB 5, which went into effect in July. Research shows HB 5 won’t make Kentucky communities safer but will cost the state more than one billion dollars over the next decade by lengthening already-harsh sentences and criminalizing poverty. It is critical that state lawmakers avoid passing even more of this type of legislation in 2025 based on such false claims.
- KyPolicy analysis of the FBI’s State Reporting System (SRS) dataset, which includes both official state- and national-level data from 1979 to 2023 as well as population estimates: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads.
- The FBI adds in several other crimes, in addition to these four for which there is state-level data, to calculate its broader category of “violent offense total”: non-negligent and negligent manslaughter, simple assault and intimidation.
